Here are unexpected upsides to the measly NODX growth

Good news behind 0.5% nudge.

According to Nomura, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) once again fell short of expectations, rising just 0.5% y-o-y in January after declining by 16.3% in December (Consensus: 3%, Nomura: 7.2%). 

On a sequential basis, NODX fell 1.8% m-o-m sa, despite favourable base effects from a significant downward revision in December to -4.2% from 1.8%.

Both electronics and non-electronics exports failed to improve as much as expected, but there were pockets of strength.

Here's more from Nomura:

While overall electronics exports declined by 5.6% y-o-y after falling 19.1%, electronics exports to China rebounded strongly (up 18.3%) but was offset by still-weak demand from other key markets, particularly those in the US (-24.2%), Japan (-15%), and EU (-9.2%).

Meanwhile, non-electronics exports rose 3.8% y-o-y after declining 14.8%, led by petrochemicals.

This is consistent with our overall view that NODX will remain volatile in the near-term. For example, oil rig deliveries in Q1 could boost NODX, but electronics will likely remain subdued.

Base effects could also be unfavourable. Looking further ahead, we expect NODX to show a sustained improvement in the second half, consistent with our global growth forecast of 3% for the full year from 3.1% in 2012.