Economists see stronger Singapore growth as risks persist

Growth scenarios are skewed towards a weaker outcome.

Economists have become more optimistic about Singapore’s growth, with forecasts moving higher and becoming more aligned, although some downside risks remain, according to a survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

According to the September 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters, most economists believe Singapore’s economy will grow between 5% and 5.4%, with an average probability of 37%. This was an increase from 3% to 3.4% from the previous survey in June.

The inter-decile range of 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts has narrowed slightly. At the lower end, respondents assign a 10% probability to GDP growth at or below 4.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from at or below 2.8% in the previous survey. At the upper end, respondents place a 90% probability on GDP growth at or below 5.7%, compared to at or below 4.6% previously, an increase of 1.2 percentage points.

Economists' median forecast for 2027 GDP is 3.1%. The most likely growth range is 3% to 3.4%, with an assigned probability of 25%, compared with 2% to 2.4% (34%) in the previous survey.

Respondents also assign relatively high probabilities to growth outcomes in the 2% to 2.4% and 4% to 4.4% ranges, suggesting some uncertainty around the central forecast for next year. MAS said the standard deviation of the forecast has increased slightly.

CPI-All Items inflation came in at 1.8% year-on-year in Q2 2026, lower than respondents' median forecast of 2.1% in the previous survey. MAS Core Inflation was 1.5% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point below respondents' expectations. For Q3 2026, respondents expect CPI-All Items and MAS Core Inflation to come in at 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

Economists continue to flag that the biggest downside risks for Singapore are a prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East and the bursting of the AI bubble, with associated spillovers to financial markets.

On the upside, all respondents identified a sustained AI-driven upturn in the technology cycle as a key support to Singapore’s economic outlook. Respondents also pointed to a de-escalation or resolution of the Middle East conflict and stronger-than-expected global growth as important upside risks.

In the current survey, 45% of respondents anticipate monetary policy tightening in October 2026 through an increase of the slope of the S$NEER policy band, up from 30% in the previous survey, with the rest of the respondents expecting no change to the slope of the policy band. Almost all respondents do not expect any changes to the monetary policy stance in January 2027.

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