5% of manufacturers threatened by a ‘deteriorating’ industry

But a weighted 17% expect business conditions to improve in H2 2011.

According to the Survey of Business Expectations of the Manufacturing Sector for the third quarter of 2011 by the Economic Development Board, in the manufacturing sector, a weighted 17 per cent of manufacturers expect business conditions to improve while a weighted 5 per cent foresee deterioration in the second half of 2011.

Overall, a net weighted balance of 12 per cent of manufacturers anticipate a more favorable business situation in the next six months ending December 2011 compared to the second quarter of 2011. This sentiment however is weaker than the net weighted balance of 18 per cent recorded in the same period a year ago (i.e. second half of 2010). 

Within the manufacturing sector, the transport engineering cluster is the most optimistic. A net weighted balance of 24 per cent of firms foresees improved business conditions in the second half of 2011 compared to a quarter ago. The marine & offshore engineering segment expects to benefit from robust oil and gas exploration activities on the back of high oil prices. The aerospace segment also anticipates more repair jobs ahead as air traffic remains strong.

A net weighted 19 per cent of the general manufacturing industries cluster expects business to improve in the next six months ending December 2011. This is mainly due to the food, beverages and tobacco segment which anticipate higher festive orders in the next two quarters of the year.

In the electronics cluster, a net weighted balance of 14 per cent of firms is optimistic about the business situation in the second half of 2011 compared to the robust 33 per cent recorded in the same period last year. The data storage segment foresees healthy storage demand, arising from new applications such as cloud computing.

While the semiconductor segment maintains a positive outlook in the seasonally active second half of the year, the weighted per cent of firms that expect an improved situation is 10 per cent in the latest survey, compared to 48 per cent a year ago. This is due to the softening in global demand for consumer electronics products.

Output Forecast for July – September 2011

Compared to the second quarter of 2011, a net weighted balance of 14 per cent of manufacturers expects output to increase in the third quarter of 2011. All clusters project a higher level of production in the third quarter of 2011 except the chemicals cluster.

In the general manufacturing cluster, a net weighted 26 per cent of the firms expects output to increase. This is largely due to higher output expectations in the food, beverages and tobacco segment to meet seasonal demand e.g. lunar seventh month and Moon Cake Festival. 

A net weighted balance of 20 per cent of firms in the transport engineering cluster projects a higher level of work to be done in all its segments in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the second quarter of 2011. In the electronics cluster, a net weighted balance of 16 per cent of firms predicts a seasonal uptick in production in the next three months. The seasonal demand seems to be somewhat weaker compared to the same period last year when 45 per cent of electronics firms expected higher output.

On the other hand, the chemical cluster anticipates output level in the third quarter of 2011 to be similar to the preceding quarter. Within the cluster, the petroleum segment expects throughput to increase following maintenance shutdowns in the second quarter of 2011. Refining margins are also expected to improve ahead. However, the petrochemical segment expects output declines in the third quarter of 2011 in view of scheduled maintenance shutdowns during the period.

Employment Forecast for July – September 2011

Employment prospects in the manufacturing sector for the third quarter of 2011 are expected to remain positive. Among all the manufacturers polled, a weighted 97 per cent of them expects employment level in the third quarter of 2011 to increase or remain similar, compared to the second quarter of 2011.

Within the manufacturing sector, the transport engineering, precision engineering and the general manufacturing industries clusters are the most optimistic about employment opportunities in the three months ahead.

Factors Affecting Export Orders for July – September 2011

A weighted 54 per cent of firms in the manufacturing sector reported no limiting factors that will affect their ability to obtain direct export orders in the third quarter of 2011. Of the weighted 38 per cent of firms that indicated export constraints, price competition from overseas competitors is the most important limiting factor. 

Photo credit: I-5 Design & Manufacture