Singapore’s working age population to contract by over 330,000

The world’s working-age population will increase by over a billion people over the next 20 years, but all growth will come in developing economies while at the same time the developed world will see its workforce shrink and age. In Singapore, the working age population will fall by 338,000 people by 2030.

Business leaders - both here in Singapore and internationally - need a joined up solution to take on this looming threat of increased global unemployment.

This is one conclusion drawn by Hays, following the release of its report Creating Jobs in a Global Economy, compiled in partnership with economic forecaster Oxford Economics, which illustrates the challenges ahead for employers, employees and governments across the world over the next 20 years.

The report notes that overall, the size of developed economies’ population of working age will contract by one million people. Singapore ranks 25th in the list of countries that will experience the sharpest fall in working age population between 2010-30. The Russian Federation ranks highest and is forecast to contract by 16,9 million people. Japan is second, forecast to contract by 13.0 million people.

In contract, the increase in working age population will come from less developed or least developed nations. Topping the list is India, which will add 241.1 million people to its working age population by 2030.

The report also notes that over the next 20 years, developing markets will face a period of rapid industrialisation and infrastructure construction which will require access to skilled and experienced workers currently unavailable in sufficient numbers domestically. Similarly, the developed markets will need to find ways of maintaining their competitive edge in key industries by investing in the future skills required, albeit against a backdrop of a smaller and older pool of workers.

Moreover, four key sectors or issues are expected to define the skills that employers will need over the next 20 years. Firstly, forecasts of different countries’ financial sector output indicate that most of the growth in demand for financial sector workers will occur in countries where the sector is already large. Singapore ranks twelfth on the list of countries forecast to experience the largest growth in financial services output between 2010 to 2030 and thus demand for skilled staff in this area will remain strong.

Secondly, the increasing number of elderly people will raise demand for healthcare professionals in many countries. Across the globe, the numbers of over 65s are forecast to increase by 446 million. Of these, 121 million will be located in China, 65 million in India, 32 million in the US and 7.5 million in Japan. Countries will need to devote increasing numbers to work in the healthcare industry or increase inward migration. As there is already a shortage of healthcare professionals worldwide, international migration may be controversial and require a coordinated response. The World Health Organisation has already introduced a code of practice on the international recruitment of health personnel.

Thirdly, climate change will lead to job creation in the development of green energy sources and in occupations needed to mitigate the impacts of global warming. In the short-term, this will include some increases in jobs to design, manufacture, install and operate the new renewable electricity generating plants. As new fuels are developed, the technology will be used in a wider range of vehicles and consumer goods, which will require new production lines or the refit of existing ones. But it is also likely to lead to job losses at industries closely connected to the generation and use of fossil fuels.

Finally, the industrialisation of some of the larger emerging markets is likely to lead to the need for considerable infrastructure investment, and so significant demand for skilled labour in the construction and engineering sectors. This will require inward migration of highly-skilled temporary construction workers. These are likely to include architects, civil engineers and experienced trades people. It should also increase the demand for more permanent skilled labour in the production of engineering and mechanical goods.

In all of these four cases, demand for employees and for skilled workers will increase. These four issues will obviously not be the only issues or changes to impact on the skilled labour market over the next 20 years; but they give good guides to what skills will be needed and how employers can ensure businesses’ needs are met most efficiently.