Asia's online commerce surged nearly 140% in last 3 years

Global online sales to hit USD1t in 2013.

According to J. Safra Sarasin Group, Asia, and especially China, are the biggest regional growth drivers for online commerce.

In Asia online commerce increased by almost 140% annually over the last three years according to Bank J. Safra Sarasin’s latest Equity Research Focus.

Bank J. Safra Sarasin forecasts that Asia will account for 23% of online sales, up from 3.8% in 2012, and compared with a global increase in online sales from 4% in 2012 to 16% of total retail sales in 2020.

By the end of this decade China is forecast to overtake the US as the world’s largest online market, with annual retail volumes to exceed USD 520 billion by 2020.

Online retail sales in China are increasing by more than 60% per year as Internet usage soars. China already has the world’s largest Internet community, with almost 570 million users.

But its Internet penetration rate, at 42%, is far below Western levels. According to Bank J. Safra Sarasin, China appears to be skipping the process of evolving from local and regional retailers to national mega-suppliers with huge economies of scale.

Michael Romer, Equity Analyst, said:

"China is the future heavyweight of online retail sales. Online sales are surging at a disproportionate rate of more than 60% per year due to the spectacular increase in Internet usage."

The biggest online sales volumes in absolute terms are reached in high-consumption countries such as the US, China, Japan, and Russia, and in Europe by Germany and the UK (see chart below).

Together they account for 75% of the world total online sales. While global online sales account for just 4% of global retail sales (estimated at USD 20.5 trillion), online sales are expected to hit USD 1 trillion this year, almost double the online sales volumes of 2010.

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