Pork production in Southeast Asia plunges as African swine fever spreads

ASF-stricken countries turn to imports and meat substitution.

Over 4 million pigs have already been slaughtered in one part of the region, and as a result, pork production has massively declined, reports Fitch Solutions.

Vietnam leads the number of pig killings with 4.7 million, followed by China’s 2 million. South Korea has already recorded 15,000 pig killings, Philippines with 7,000, and even though Thailand has yet to record an outbreak, killings have already started as a preventive measure.

As the pork supply gap increasingly widens, Fitch forecasts the YoY decline in pork production for Vietnam, China, and the Philippines, with -5% YoY, -3.7% YoY, and -1.5% YoY respectively, with the downward trend expected to follow in 2020.

This puts inflationary pressure on food prices in Asia with China receiving the largest impact. China’s wholesale pork prices have doubled the value with US$4.92 (CNY35) per kg as of August 2019 from the beginning of the year. Wholesale chicken prices have also risen, growing by 11.5% over January-August 2019.
In supplying the shortfall, ASF-stricken countries have turned to pork imports and meat substitution.

Imports in China have reached 180,000 tonnes of pigs as of July 2019, a 106% increase from July 2018. Spain, Germany, Brazil, and the EU have supported China in the ASF-fallout, where the latter accounts for the majority of the imports at 68%.

Meanwhile, poultry demand has also spiked in the country as consumers continue to substitute pork with other meats.

The global feed demand growth is expected to be in doldrums for the rest of 2019 up until 2020.