China's home property market to witness 3.4% growth through 2028

It already rose 16.8% YoY in April 2019.

China’s residential property market is forecasted to grow at an average 3.4% over the next ten years through 2028 as the government seeks further real estate investments to cushion the impact of ongoing US-China trade disputes, Fitch Solutions revealed in a report.

Already, its YoY change came in at 16.8% in April 2019, more than six pp higher than what was observed in real estate development investment two years ago. Due to the government’s plans, Fitch Solutions’ growth forecasts for China’s residential buildings sector was adjusted to 4.4% and 4.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively, up from 4.1% and 3.9%.

The country’s construction market is also forecasted to expand 6.2% by 2020.

Also read: Property investments in Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose to $61.91b in 2018

Over the longer term, an already saturated market and a projected decrease in population may likely result in further slowdown in growth in residential building.

A de-escalation of trade disputes and an overheating property market would likely result in policy reversals. Credit tightening measures could be implemented, increasing mortgage rates and decreasing demand for residential property.

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