HDB resale prices up in Q2, but market shows signs of cooling: analysts

Resale prices rose 0.9% QoQ — the slowest increase since Q2 2020, whilst transaction volume rose 7.8% to 7,102 flats.

Resale prices for HDB flats continued to rise in Q2 2025, but analysts note signs of market moderation, citing cooling demand and growing competition from new flat launches.

According to the latest HDB data, resale prices rose 0.9% QoQ — the slowest increase since Q2 2020. Whilst transaction volume rose 7.8% to 7,102 flats, YoY volume declined by 3.4%.

Realion attributed the slowdown to increased BTO and SBF flat supply and mounting affordability pressures. Huttons echoed this, pointing out that the 0.9% price growth marked a five-quarter low.

They also noted a sharp 4% price increase in executive flats, alongside a visible pullback in price growth for 4- and 5-room units — suggesting emerging buyer resistance.

Despite this moderation, demand for luxury resale flats remains strong. A record 415 units sold for $1M or more in Q2 — up 19.3% from Q1. Huttons highlighted that over 90% of these flats were located in mature estates, with Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, and Queenstown leading the pack.

A new milestone was also reached: more than 100 executive/multi-generational flats crossed the million-dollar mark for the first time. Huttons projects that 1,500 such flats — roughly 5% of total resale volume — could be sold in 2025.

Rental demand also held firm. HDB rental applications rose 4.2% QoQ, whilst private home rentals increased by 0.8%, with leasing volume up 2.8%. PropNex expects modest rental growth to continue in the second half of the year as tight supply and affordability constraints persist.

Looking ahead, PropNex forecasts HDB resale price growth of 4% to 5% for the full year. Realion projects 4% to 5.5%, whilst Huttons gives a slightly more bullish estimate of 4% to 6%.

All three firms agree that upcoming BTO launches — especially in centrally located areas like Mount Pleasant and Keppel Club — could shift some demand away from the resale market in the months ahead.

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