Fast facts you should know about the QE tapering

And when it's likely to end.

UOB Economic-Treasury Research released a report on the US’ June FOMC statement. It said that the June FOMC statement did not surprise as the Fed opted to keep its announced QEs with the outright monthly purchase of US$85bn longer term UST and mortgage-backed securities, as widely expected.

The Fed also reaffirmed its FFTR guidance to unemployment and inflation targets and will continue QE3 and reinvesting its portfolio of maturing housing debt into agency mortgage-backed securities while rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auctions.

Here's more from UOB Economic-Treasury Research:

The Fed’s June assessment of the US outlook improved even as 2013 growth outlook lowered slightly while 2014 growth is revised higher and unemployment rate is expected to improve at a faster pace for 2013 to 2015, compared to the March 2013 assessment.

The surprise came in the subsequent press conference on 19 June where Bernanke noted that if the Fed forecasts hold, then the Fed will considering reducing QE later in 2013 and will end QE by the middle of 2014. This sent US equity and Treasury prices tumbling while the US dollar broadly strengthened.

We continue to believe the Fed is likely to announce a scaling back of its QE3 starting in September but we are not certain if it will end the QE3 entirely by mid-2014.

The next key event where Bernanke may shed more light on the timeline for the QE tapering will be in 17-18 July when he is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual testimony to the US policymakers over two days. In addition, with markets expecting Bernanke to exit the Fed when his term ends on 31 Jan 2014, we will also look out for headlines for the Fed succession plan.

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