Temporary break for consumers in the Philippines?

The archipelago entered into a sweet spot of low inflation and higher growth in 2012, but things may soon change.

Domestic prices for food, transport, communications and utilities may not remain in their favorable state with the impending rise in oil prices and waning of positive base effects.

Here's more from the DBS Group Research,

CPI numbers are on tap tomorrow and an inflation reading of 2.8% YoY is expected for March. Inflation over the last few quarters has come down sharply and the broad downtrends have been seen across the food, transport, communications and utilities components of CPI. The situation will change in the coming months as favorable base effects start to wear out and rising oil prices start to impact on domestic prices. That said, the pace of increase will be mild and even with oil prices hovering above USD120/bbl, inflation could still average 4% for 2012. For 2012, the country is entering into a sweet spot of low inflation (4% in 2012 compared to 4.8% in 2011) and higher growth (4.2% in 2012 compared to 3.7% in 2011). As such, the central bank (BSP) can be expected to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to stimulate credit and demand growth. We see no change to the overnight borrowing rate at 4% for the rest of the year.

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