Who wins in the new India budget?

The infrastructure and utilities sectors are seen to receive windfalls from the upcoming F2013 budget.

Consumer industries though could face setbacks if policymakers slash oil subsidies and government expenditure, said Morgan Stanley, the latter of which is being closely anticipated.

The F2013 budget will be presented March 16.

Here's more from Morgan Stanley:

Two important issues we are watching for in Budget F2013: The government is scheduled to present the annual budget F2013 on March 16. Considering the current weak macro trend, investors are building hope that the government will recognize the need to relay its commitment to reviving the growth outlook with budget measures.

We would watch the budget announcement in the context of two most important issues: 1) A credible plan to cut government expenditure growth and 2) Policy measures to encourage private investment.

Market implications: According to our India Strategist, Ridham Desai, "history does not favor the market in the following 3-4 weeks. The markets are usually flat in the month ahead of the budget and, in two out of three years, fall in the month following it. In the past 15 years, the market has been positive in the following years: 1997, 1999, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2011 - there does not seem to be a great correlation between market performance and a market-friendly budget. We continue to be buyers of Indian equities from a 12- to 18-month perspective, though seek protection from a correction in the near term."

Industry-specific expectations: Our analyst team expects the budget to be a clear positive for infrastructure and utilities. We do not see any policy measures that hurt consumption, but we believe any credible plan to reduce government revenue expenditure growth or oil subsidies will hamper the top lines of some consumer industries in the near term.

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