Why Korea's current economic situation feels like déjà vu

Very similar to the "MPC revolt of 2004".

According to Nomura, they view Korea's current situation as similar to 2004, when the government formulated a supplementary budget, stimulated the property market and implicitly pressed the Bank of Korea to cut rates (the so-called "MPC revolt of 2004").

The rate cuts of 2004 are regarded as a policy mistake, as the lower interest rates resulted in a domestic debt overhang, which became a major structural factor for weak domestic demand.

Here's more from Nomura:

Our baseline view is that the Bank of Korea (BOK) will not make the same mistake again. However, we see risks that the BOK might be forced to cut rates in April (a 40% likelihood), which would likely worsen the household debt problem.

Newly appointed Finance Minister Hyun Oh-Seok stated that the government will announce a stimulus package as early as this week. Hyun hinted that the stimulus package will be a mix of policies, including fiscal, financial and property market policies.

In our view, the current situation surrounding the BOK looks similar to 2004, when the government implicitly pushed the BOK to cut rates.

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