Analysts see MAS tightening after mixed February CPI print

War-driven import risks cloud inflation outlook.

Core inflation rose to a 14-month high in February, whilst headline inflation eased, prompting economists to warn that rising imported cost pressures could push the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten policy in April.

MAS Core Inflation increased to 1.4% YoY from 1.0% in January, whilst CPI-All Items inflation fell to 1.2% from 1.4%.

The core pickup was driven by faster services, food, and retail and other goods inflation, partly reflecting Chinese New Year effects, whilst softer accommodation and private transport costs pulled down headline inflation.

Services inflation rose to 2.0% from 1.5%, helped by higher airfares and holiday expenses, whilst food inflation climbed to 1.6% from 1.2%. Accommodation inflation fell to 0.3% from 1.9%, and private transport inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.7%.

MAS and the Ministry of Trade and Industry kept their 2026 forecasts for both core and headline inflation at 1.0% to 2.0%, but said import cost pressures are likely to rise in the near term as global energy prices increase amid the Middle East conflict.

Maybank said the inflation shock is still at a nascent stage, but now expects MAS to tighten in April by steepening the Singapore dollar (S$NEER) appreciation slope by 50 basis points to 100 basis points.

It also raised its 2026 core inflation forecast to 1.9% from 1.7% and its headline forecast to 1.8% from 1.6%.

UOB also expects a 50 basis point slope steepening in April to 1.0% per annum, and now sees another similar move in October that could be brought forward to July if imported inflation strengthens further.

It said about 7.7% of Singapore’s CPI basket could be directly exposed to oil and gas prices, with risks spreading through transport, utilities, and food.

Meanwhile, eToro said the February print was not just a festive distortion, pointing to firmer services inflation and a 14.8% rise in health insurance premiums as signs that some price pressures may prove stickier beyond the holiday period.

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