Economists see no impetus for MAS to adjust policy before mid-2025

They expect changes only when core inflation nears 1.8% YoY.

Experts expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its policy parameters unchanged at least through the first half of 2025, saying there’s "no impetus" for changes.

According to RHB economists, the current monetary policy parameters remain "appropriate for maintaining Singapore's price pressures."

"The MAS' goal to ensure stable prices in 2025 will dominate monetary policy decisions; we expect headline and core inflation pressures at 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively, in line with the official range forecast of 1.5 – 2.5%, thus suggesting little impetus for monetary policy to move anytime soon," RHB economists said.

UOB economists said MAS will only likely commence a policy normalisation via a slight slope reduction when year-on-year core inflation is "very close" to desired levels of 1.8% YoY and when GST effects have completely washed out.

As of September, core inflation was at 2.8% YoY.

"Our base case calls for a 'slight' reduction by 50 bps to the S$NEER slope either in the January or April 2025 monetary policy statement," UOB said.