False alarm: SGD depreciation gave fake boost to December NODX print

Exports didn’t really pick up.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) registered an extremely surprising 2.3% year-on-year uptick in December, beating market expectations of a 2.2% decline. But analysts caution that there is no reason to celebrate over the glossy headline number.

According to DBS, the increase is probably due to the depreciation of the SGD versus the greenback.The SGD has depreciated by about 4.7% year-on-year against the USD.

“Depreciation in the SGD has essentially inflated the headline number in local currency terms. In fact, if expressed in USD terms, NODX actually del by 2% YoY in December,” stated DBS.

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