GDP growth at risk as exports contract for two consecutive years

This has never happened before.

Singapore’s GDP growth is at risk if the country’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) continue to contract. According to DBS, full year NODX is expected to contract by about 1% year-on-year in 2014, marking the second consecutive year of decline after a 6% drop in 2013.

DBS warns that NODX has never fallen in two consecutive years except during the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, when sales fell by 8% and 10.5% respectively.

“This will be the first time NODX declines in such a manner in a non-recession environment. Plainly, there wil lbe significant downside risks to GDP growth if NODX registers another year of contraction in 2015. It'll be a challenging year ahead,” DBS states.

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