Here’s what the March CPI means for Singapore’s economy

The MAS will remain hawkish.

Although Singapore’s inflation remained in the red in March, HSBC notes that the -0.3% decline provides a brief respite in the country’s moderating CPI trend.

HSBC noted that the more moderate pace of decline will allow the Monetary Authority of Singapore to remain hawkish for the rest of the year.

HSBC also nadded that CPI is expected to pick up near the end of Q3 due to the low base effects.

“The text of the CPI data release by the MAS largely reflected the hawkish tone from last week's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). It explicitly mentioned the underlying cost pressures stemming from the tight labour market, a statement omitted in previous inflation releases. This also reflects policymaker comments in recent months highlighting that labour market conditions are expected to tighten further in the months ahead,” HSBC noted.

“In our opinion, the April MPS made clear that MAS no longer has an easing bias. We see no further change to settings this year. Any policy change is highly dependent on inflation and growth data, which would have to surprise on the downside by a wide margin to prompt a change in policy,” HSBC added.

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