A paranoia story: Overall loan growth down to a single digit of 9%

As cloudy global economic outlook looms over Singapore.

Overall loan growth eased further to 9.0% YoY in the month, down from 10.6% previously. Business loan growth softened to 11.4%, from 13.9% while consumer loan growth eased a tad to report an increase of 5.5%, down from 5.7% in September.

According to a report by DBS, loans extended to manufacturing companies fell by 0.6% YoY after posting two consecutive months of expansion. This is synonymous with the tepid growth performance in this sector over the past months. In fact, loan growth figures for other industries have all shown slower pace of increase as well.
Consumer leverages remain weighed down by the slew of macro-prudential measures introduced by the authority last year. Car loans continue to decline at a steady pace of about 20% in the month on the back of the curbs on car financings introduced last year. But mortgage loan growth appears to be holding up.

Here’s more from DBS:

Mortgage loan growth registered 6.4% YoY, almost similar to the pace reported over the last two months. This suggests the existence of pent-up demand on the side-lines to capitalise on a gradually cooling real estate market.

Going forward, overall loan growth is expected to continue to moderate against the backdrop of higher interest rate expectation. In this regards, the 3mth SIBOR has spiked up recently in conjunction with a weakening in the SGD. persists, loan growth will definitely be pressured further.

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