Singapore keeps 3.0% GDP outlook as exports jump 15.3% in March

RHB flags trade strength and MAS policy shift amidst energy-driven external risks.

Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 is maintained at 3.0%, with downside risks to 2.5%, according to RHB Global Economics & Market Strategy in its 17 April “Rasa Mingguan” report.

The report said the weaker first-quarter GDP reflects a normalisation in trade-related sectors after strong growth in 2025, as well as early impacts from Middle East tensions on trade and manufacturing.

On monetary policy, RHB said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) slightly steepened the S$NEER policy slope, raising the rate of appreciation to 1.0% from 0.5%, whilst keeping the band width and midpoint unchanged.

RHB expects MAS to keep policy settings unchanged in July, but noted a risk of further tightening later in 2026 if higher energy prices persist due to geopolitical tensions.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 15.3% year on year (YoY) in March 2026, up from 4.0% in February. On a seasonally adjusted basis, NODX rose 3.0% month on month, bringing first-quarter growth to 9.6% YoY.

The report said export trends remain linked to external demand and energy price movements.