Tariff risks to weigh on Singapore’s growth in 2025

However, strong domestic data may prompt the MAS to maintain its current policy stance.

Tariff escalations are expected to weigh on Singapore’s growth in 2025, but strong domestic data and above-average inflation may prompt the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current policy stance.

Based on its report “Asia's Roadmap to Trump 2.025,” Deutsche Bank Research said while US growth may improve under President Donald Trump’s fiscal policies, the benefits are unlikely to reach export-reliant economies like Singapore.

It stated that Singapore’s GDP could shrink by 0.4 percentage points annually through 2028 under a severe scenario of 60% US tariffs on Chinese goods and a 10% universal tariff, the report noted.

In comparison, a milder scenario with 20% tariffs on Chinese goods and a 5% universal tariff would have a more moderate effect.

Meanwhile, it said Singapore’s external outlook remains uncertain as exports peak and potential US tariffs, along with weak Chinese stimulus, weigh on trade prospects.

“We lean towards our prevailing call to ease earlier rather than later (i.e., January 2025), especially since what could play out in global trade and foreign policy has been largely anticipated, coupled with expected disinflation path and the lagged impact of monetary policy,” the firm stated.

“However, we acknowledge that the MAS may want to wait for more certainty on both the domestic and external fronts. That is, domestic price pressures showing sustained signs of easing and economic activity weakening, as well as details of the roll-out of potential tariffs globally,” it added, revising its forecast for MAS rate cuts to April and July, instead of the earlier projection of January and April.

If you've been wondering whether SBR could work for your company — yes, probably.

A lot of the companies we partner with started as readers. They'd been following our coverage for a while, saw their own customers and competitors in it, and eventually asked the obvious question: could we do something with you? The answer is usually yes. The shape of it depends on what you're trying to do.

The options are broader than most people assume — thought leadership articles, sponsored content, industry summits across Southeast Asia, regional awards programmes, podcasts, and media placements in print and digital. Some partners use one channel; most use a mix. We figure out the right combination by starting with your brief, not with our rate card.

So if the question has been on your mind, here's the easy way to ask it.

We'll tell you honestly whether we can help, and how. It's a better use of everyone's time.

Book a meeting

| Or download the media kit (PDF)

240,000 senior readers quarterly in print Top 1,700 Singapore companies reached

7 markets across Southeast Asia