Estate-level rental gaps loom as MOP flat surge hits market: analyst

Resale flats reaching their five-year minimum occupation period will double in 2026.

Different market forces are balancing the pressures on rents; however, estate-level price disparities could potentially hit some landlords, according to the Private Residential & HDB Rental Market Outlook Report 2026 by OrangeTee, a member of Realion Group.

According to HDB data, the number of resale flats reaching their five-year minimum occupation period (MOP) is projected to more than double in 2026, rising to 13,484 units from 6,973 units in the previous year. The supply of MOP flats is expected to grow further to 18,939 units in 2027 and 21,393 units in 2028.

Almost 54,000 resale flats are projected to obtain MOP from 2026 to 2028, which will surpass the estimated 34,000 MOP units in the three years prior, from 2023 to 2025. The report expects more sellers to lease their units.

Due to the increased housing stock, landlords of existing flats may experience greater competition for tenants in these housing estates.

“Landlords of the newly MOP flats may ask for higher rents than those of older flats in the same region, resulting in greater rental price disparities,” the report said.

However, this pressure is counterbalanced by the growth of employment pass holders. According to the Ministry Of Manpower (MOM), the number of foreign workers holding Employment Passes (EP) has been steadily increasing from 187,300 in 2022 to 205,400 in 2023 and 202,100 in 2024.

Although some foreign workers live in dormitories, the report anticipates that many could be leasing HDB rooms. Therefore, demand for small flats or room rentals is poised to increase alongside the increase in WP holders.

Overall, HDB rental prices are forecast to hold steady at 1% to 3% for the whole of 2026, which is on par with the 1.5% to 2% projection for 2025.

“In the long term, HDB landlords may face more competition as the public housing stock is poised to increase substantially more than the private market,” the report said.

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