Will slower GDP growth and hiring weigh on HDB rentals?

The HDB rental market had stabilised in 2025, with leasing activity rising by 2.3% to roughly 37,500 contracts.

Singapore’s HDB rental market is expected to face a cautious outlook in 2026, with softer gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1% to 3%, cautious hiring, and higher S Pass qualifying salaries from September 2025 likely to weigh on demand, according to Huttons.

Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director, Data Analytics at Huttons, said that an estimated 70% rise in flats reaching their minimum occupation period will intensify competition among landlords, with Punggol, Queenstown, and Tampines seeing the largest numbers of newly eligible units.

The HDB rental market had stabilised in 2025. Leasing activity rose about 2.3% to roughly 37,500 contracts, supported by international students and by HDB owners renting while waiting for private home completions.

As per OrangeTee’s “HDB Resale Market Outlook 2026", the HDB resale market will face increased pressure next year due to a surge in housing supply and potential policy changes.

However, factors like lower mortgage rates, steady household incomes, and stable economic growth are expected to support demand.

The report noted that more expensive resale flats will likely be sold as many flats in mature estates reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP). In 2025, the resale market slowed, with price growth dropping from 2.6% in Q4 2024 to just 0.4% by Q3 2025.

The report said that older flats and those in less desirable locations will face stronger competition from newer, more attractively designed flats, including Build-To-Order (BTO) units and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF).

New launches in prime locations such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, Mount Pleasant, and Bayshore are also anticipated.

In November, HDB resale prices rose 0.2%, with mature estates up 0.6% and non-mature estates up 0.1%, according to 99-SRX.

Overall prices increased 3% year-on-year, led by gains in 3-room (2.6%), 4-room (3.2%), 5-room (3.6%), and Executive units (6.9%). Mature and non-mature estates saw YoY increases of 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively.

A total of 1,674 flats were resold in November, 24.3% more than October, with 4-room units making up 45.5% of transactions. Non-mature estates accounted for 57% of sales, mature estates 43%.

Huttons noted that about 15% of new-home buyers in the second half of 2025 had an HDB address. A net loss of around 600 S Pass jobs in the first half of the year was a drag, but a smaller pool of MOP flats helped keep rents broadly flat.

Some offsetting factors remain for 2026. Huttons said more than 8,000 private units slated for launch may prompt some upgraders to rent HDB flats temporarily. Overall, the firm expects HDB rental transactions and rents to stay flat next year.

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