Why January home sales could actually be 'distorted' data

Only 34 units were sold in mid-month.

According to Nomura, on 15 February, the URA reported January pre-sales data. Excluding executive condos (ECs), developers sold 2,013 units (+42.8% m-m. +7.5%y-y), which appears strong but may hide a weaker second-half due to the latest round of cooling measures announced on 11 Jan 2013.

There were a total of seven new projects with a total of 1,859 units launched for sale in January, of which 50.5% were sold during the month.

Here's more from Nomura:

Jan pre-sales of 2,013 units (ex-ECs, up 42.8% m-m) appears bullish but maybe distorted due to mid-month cooling measures.

These included two mass-market projects La Fiesta (810 units, median price S$1,163psf) and Q Bay Residences (630 units, median price S$1,012psf) which together sold 776 units during the month and are 50% and 59% sold-out respectively.

Whilst Jan headline numbers appear strong, we think that sales likely slowed down in the second half of the month. For instance, City Developments had reported 390 units sold at Echelon as of 6 Jan 2013, suggesting that during 7-31 Jan the developer moved just 21 units versus the 66 units sold during 1-6 Jan.

For La Fiesta, an estimated 370 units were sold during the weekend of 11-13 Jan, which implies that only a further 34 units were sold during 14-31 Jan.

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