, Singapore

Why a severe dip in home prices is unlikely

It could only drop 3-7% next year, says analyst.

OCBC Investment Research argues that a severe dip in home prices is improbable given the high price elasticity of demand in the housing market - that is, the city likely see significant buyer demand coming into the market at lower price points.

In 2017, the research house forecasts for private residential prices to dip 3% - 7% and private residential rents to fall 5%-10%.

It also expects primary residential sales to remain muted at between 6k and 9k units in 2017.

According to OCBC Investment Research, despite prices continuing their downtrend in 2015 and 2016, the rate of sales appears to have stabilized near that in 2014 (~1.8k–2.0k units sold per quarter), with about 5.7k units sold over 9M16 to date.
 

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Chua spent 18 years with UBS Wealth Management prior to his new role.
Private-sector economists polled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore expect higher growth, faster inflation in 2021. Economists and analysts from the private sector expect the Singapore economy to grow by 6.8% for the full year of 2021, according to the latest Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) survey of professional forecasters. The forecast for the June survey is higher than the 5.8% forecast from the March survey. The twenty-seven respondents expect manufacturing to grow by 8.3%, finance & insurance by 6.0%, construction by 19.3%, wholesale & retail trade by 4.4% and accommodation & food services by 6.5%. Private consumption is expected to grow by 5.2%, lower than the 7.9% forecast from the past survey. Non-oil domestic exports is expected to grow by 7.5% for the full year of 2021. CPI-all items inflation and MAS Core inflation are expected to come in at 1.4% and 0.8% respectively for the full year of 2021. For the second quarter, the economists expect CPI inflation to come in at 1.9% and core inflation to come in at 0.7%.  
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