COSCO's box production unlikely to recover in 2H12

Contribution of the container manufacturing segment is expected to fall to US$35m.

Here's more from Barclays:

Lower 2012-13E EPS: We trim our 2012E EPS by -10% to US$0.14 and 2013E EPS by -6% to US$0.16, driven by an expected decline in profit contribution from the container manufacturing segment. Container manufacturing contributed US$91mn in 1H11, equivalent to 37% of 1H11 net profit. We expect that to fall to US$35mn and make a similar contribution in 2H12. We see it increasingly less likely that box production will recover in 2H12 as we had previously expected due to slow overall trade growth and box-mile contraction in the container shipping industry.

Terminal operating assumptions maintained: We make no changes to our operating assumptions for COSCO Pacific's terminal operations. In 1H12, the company's terminal portfolio achieved throughput growth of +10.8% y/y, slightly ahead of our full-year expectation of +10.0% y/y.

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