Here's how Wilmar will be threatened by bird flu scare in China

Poultry trade have already been suspended in 3 cities.

According to DBS, China authorities have suspended live poultry trade in three cities so far – Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing – in an effort to curb the spread of the H7N9 virus.

Despite of this, DBS noted that based on media reports thus far, there has not been a significant drop in Chinese soybean meal demand.

Here's more:

The authorities had reportedly culled more than 20,000 birds from a live-poultry trading zone in Shanghai. Currently, researchers in the US are working to develop a vaccine. The H7N9 virus is found in pigeons but these are the first recorded cases of human infection. As of Saturday, China has confirmed 18 human infection of the H7N9 avian flu virus, according to Reuters.

An escalation in mass culling may cut soybean meal demand/prices, and in turn, crush margins in China. However, the culling has been insignificant so far. Hence, we are maintaining Wilmar’s FY13F Oilseeds & Grains pretax margin.

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