Softer NODX expected in 2025

Trade tensions are causing uncertainty.

Experts have revised their 2025 projection for Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) amidst escalating trade tensions caused by the US’s imposed tariffs.

Data from Enterprise Singapore showed that the city-state’s NODX rose 5.4% year-on-year (YoY) in March 2025, easing from 7.6% growth in February. Whilst there was strong demand from key regional markets such as Taiwan, Indonesia, and South Korea, exports to China recorded a decline.

UOB expects the full-year NODX to decline to -4.0%

“Uncertainty surrounding trade policy has recached a historical high in March 2024 as measured by the Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) index where intensification in trade tensions could lead to sizeable declines in investments and consumption,” UOB said in its macro note.

The company said ongoing negotiations and reduced trade barriers could ease tensions and eventually lower US tariffs. However, it noted some damage is already evident, pointing to Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys showing a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment.

RHB also downgraded its full-year NODX forecast to 0% from 2.0%. 

“Whilst Singapore faces the same universal tariffs (10%) within the region, the city-state's impact will be magnified relative to Singapore's significant trade exposure. Our key conviction is for US tariff risks to escalate into second half of (H2) 2025, where US-led universal tariffs are expected to increase by another 10% (to 20%) in H2 2025,” RHB said in its Global Economics & Market Strategy report.

RHB said machinery & transport, chemicals & related products and miscellaneous manufacturing are some of the sectors that will experience the most negative impact. 

Nomura, meanwhile, forecasts slower NODX growth in the near term.

“Relatively resilient domestic demand should provide some offset, cushioned by fiscal support measures and an expansionary fiscal stance in Budget 2025,” it said