Economists forecast modest NODX growth for Singapore in 2024

NODX fell 1.1% MoM and 2.7% YoY in September.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose by 1.1% month-on-month (MoM) and 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) in September, falling below the respective estimates of 1.7% and 6.3%, UOB reported.

Meanwhile, this growth exceeded RHB’s September estimates of 0.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY.

In the same month, electronic NODX slowed 4.0% YoY due to a 4.8% slowdown in integrated circuits, partly attributable to less favourable base effects compared to August.

On the flip side, personal computer exports rose to 55% from 36% in August, whilst the contraction in consumer electronics improved to -2.2% from -10.1% month-on-month (MoM).

This improvement was driven by the upgrading of consumer electronics to incorporate generative AI-related applications and the ongoing replacement of worn-out equipment acquired during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, non-electronics NODX grew 2.3% YoY with top contributions from pharmaceuticals (35.0%), specialized machinery (12.9%), and other specialty chemicals (46.2%).

“We maintain our full-year 2024 NODX growth forecast at 3.0% (YTD: -0.2%) for now, which is lower than the official forecast range of 4.0-5.0%,” UOB said.

“We keep 2024 full-year NODX and GDP growth at 1.5% and 3.0%, respectively. We view that Singapore’s NODX will remain supported by continued expansion in electronics sector, rebound in chemical pharmaceutical exports, and global growth to continue benefiting ASEAN’s export-oriented economy,” Barnabas Gan, acting group chief economist and head of Market Research, RHB Bank said.