GDP may fall 3% as trade exposure grows: KPMG

The report projects that Singapore’s GDP growth may decline by as much as 3%.

Singapore’s export-driven economy could face a sharp slowdown and risk tipping into recession by early 2026, according to KPMG’s latest Global Economic Outlook.

The report projects that Singapore’s GDP growth may decline by as much as 3%, citing the country’s extreme dependence on global trade. Exports account for nearly 190% of Singapore’s GDP, making the economy particularly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and rising global protectionism.

The report highlighted that Singapore, along with Hong Kong, is disproportionately affected by trade disruptions stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions. Rising tariffs, new trade restrictions, and instability in key shipping routes such as the South China Sea are contributing to what KPMG describes as a growing wave of “de-globalisation.”

In response, KPMG recommends that Singaporean businesses adopt a “pause and prepare” strategy, delaying major investments whilst re-evaluating supply chains and building operational resilience.

The report also encouraged firms to explore diversification in trade partnerships, invest in digital infrastructure, and strengthen domestic market capacity to reduce reliance on external demand.

KPMG notes that while geopolitical risk has traditionally been viewed as a background factor, it now requires direct strategic attention.

The people you want to reach are already in this room.

Every quarter, SBR lands on the desks of the founders, CFOs, and directors running Asia's most consequential companies. Every day, they open our newsletter and read our website. It's a room that took twenty years to build — and it's the one most of our partners are trying to get into.

The good news is that the door is open. We work with companies on thought leadership articles, sponsored content, industry summits across Southeast Asia, regional awards programmes, podcasts, and media placements in print and digital. The shape of the right partnership depends on what you're trying to do, which is why we'd rather start with a conversation than send a rate card.

If you have something this room should know about, tell us. We'll tell you honestly whether we can help, and how.

No rate cards until we understand the brief. It's a better use of everyone's time.

Book a meeting

| Or download the media kit (PDF)

240,000 senior readers quarterly in print Top 1,700 Singapore companies reached

7 markets across Southeast Asia