Singapore SME index rises to 50.5 in Q2 as growth returns

The index increase reflects a 5.8% YoY rise in collections and a 4.5% increase in payments.

Singapore’s small and medium enterprises (SMEs) returned to growth in the second quarter of 2025, with the OCBC SME Index rising to 50.5 from 49.9 in the previous quarter.

The index increase reflects a 5.8% YoY rise in collections and a 4.5% increase in payments, suggesting improved cash flow and demand conditions.

Based on this performance, OCBC’s nowcast estimates Singapore’s Q2 GDP growth at 4.5%, closely aligned with the government’s advance estimate of 4.3%.

Despite the improved performance, sentiment among SME business owners remains cautious. A survey conducted alongside the index found that 57% expect business conditions to worsen or remain unchanged in the second half of 2025. ‘

Only 43% anticipate an improvement, marking an 8-percentage-point drop from the previous quarter. The uncertainty is largely driven by unresolved U.S. tariff negotiations and fears of supply chain disruptions and currency volatility.

About half of SMEs reported being negatively impacted by the current U.S. tariff situation, with uncertainty stalling decision-making across industries.

Many are taking a wait-and-see approach until the August 1 deadline for new U.S. trade measures passes. In the meantime, SMEs face additional pressure from increased global competition and higher costs.

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