Consumer loans accelerate to 18.9% in 2011

This is the highest bank lending activity since November 2008, rising to 17.3% this year.

OCBC expects bank loans growth (a lagging indicator) to peak in H1 this year, as GDP growth already peaked in Q2 2010, similar to the last business cycle where bank loans growth peaked in May 08 after GDP growth peaked in Q32007. Note the credit card billings had slowed on-month for the secondstraight month in Feb, suggesting possible consumer concern about inflation and rising oil prices.

OCBC also said, business loans improved further to 16.1% yoy (2.3% mom), while building & construction, as well as housing loans continued to rise by 3.6% mom and 1.0% mom.

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