Immigration curbs here to stay despite falling economic growth: Morgan Stanley

Strong growth isn’t so important now.

Singapore’s stringent immigration curbs are here to stay despite the toll that it has taken on headline economic growth.

According to a report by Morgan Stanley, immigration policies will not be loosened anytime soon because Singapore no longer has need for extremely strong growth.

“Contrary to speculation about a potential loosening in immigration policy post the election, we think the slowdown in immigration intake is structural and here to stay. Growth is a means to an end. Strong growth was required previously to lift living standards, lower unemployment and meet developmental objectives," the report noted.

"However now, with already high wealth levels and a tight labour market, the economic rationale for strong growth becomes less compelling and socioeconomic and political considerations for the side-effects of fast immigration are likely to become correspondingly more important,” Morgan Stanley stated.

The report added that Singapore is also unlikely to move to the other end of the spectrum and adopt a net zero immigration policy.

“We think this would not be economically realistic as Singapore’s low indigenous birth rate means that the overall working age population would decline by -0.1% CAGR from now until 2020 and keeping the labour import strategy alive would be instrumental in sustaining GDP growth at a reasonable level to fund the social/healthcare needs of an ageing population,” Morgan Stanley said.

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