Two major banks expect lower earnings and margins in Q2

Meanwhile, fee income is expected to grow for both DBS and OCBC, thanks to wealth management.

Net earnings and net interest margins of both DBS and OCBC are projected to decline in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, according to UOB Kay Hian.

In a new analysis, UOB Kay Hian said DBS’ Q2 net profit is expected decline 4% to $2.691b from last year. Whilst loan will grow 2.6%, thanks to growth from overseas crimped by the strong Singapore dollar, net interest margin is seen to compress 7bp quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 2.05% due to the synchronised steep drop in Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) and Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR).

Contribution from wealth management, meanwhile, is seen to increase 31% to $680m in Q2.

“Market sentiment was affected by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April but made a comeback in May and June. Contribution from cards registered a gradual recovery. Loans related fees declined 34% QoQ in Q2, normalising after lumpy contribution from loans syndication in [the first quarter],” the report read.

DBS’ operating expenses are seen increase 8% and cost-to-income ratio to reach 41.3% in Q2 in line with management’s guidance of low-40% for 2025.

The bank’s non-performing loan, meanwhile, is expected to stay benign, and the ratio to be stable at 1.0%.

“DBS has accumulated ample management overlay for general provisions of $2.6b. We expect DBS to incur total provisions of $276m and credit cost of 25bp in Q2,” the report said.

The Q2 net profit of OCBC, on the other hand, is projected to decline 9% to $1.767b from last year, UOB Kay Hian said.

Loans are expected expand by 6.2% from last year, with net interest margin easing to 8bp QoQ to 1.96% in Q2 due to a steep drop in compounded SORA and HIBOR.

“We expect fee income to grow 14% YoY to S$533m in Q2. Contribution from wealth management registered a steady growth of 20% YoY to $255m,” the experts said.

“Market sentiment was subdued in April due to the announcement of reciprocal tariffs but recovered in May and June. Loans & trade-related fees were expected to grow 8% YoY to $134m,” they added.

UOB Kay Hian also sees contribution from the bank’s insurance business to be at a normalised level of $270m in Q2.

Non-performing loan ratio, meanwhile, will be stable at 0.9%, considering total provisions of $226m and credit costs of 28bp in Q2, which is above management’s guidance of 20-25bp for 2025.