April NODX seen to slip to 8.7%

Headline NODX is expected to record a slightly softer growth, down from 10% in the previous
month.

Non-oil domestic export (NODX) figure for April is due today while final 1Q11 GDP numbers will be announced this Thursday.

In a statement, DBS Bank said demand weakness as well as supply chain disruption due to the calamity in Japan is likely to be manifested in the export sales data.

The bank pointed, however, that the impact is “likely to be limited and transient” as any potential downside to the headline number due to the effect from Japan will be offset by the surge in pharmaceutical exports seen in the previous months.

It added that electronics export sales “should see an improvement” given that the global electronics cycle has bottomed in February based on leading indicators such as the SEMI book-to-bill ratio as well as global semiconductor sales numbers.

According to DBS, demand from Asia has provided the biggest boost to export performance as “the US recovery has not been impressive thus far.”

The bank expects Asia to continue propelling export figures unless a stronger recovery is seen in the US in the second half of the year.

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