Industrial production index for August critical to watch

The figure due Wednesday will more or less hint whether a recession is on the cards.

According to DBS, the industrial production index for August due this Wednesday will be keenly watched by the market. The figure, it said, will more or less decide whether the economy has fallen into a technical recession (i.e. two consecutive quarters of QoQ saar decline in GDP).

Here's from DBS:

In fact, the risk of a technical recession has been raised by the disappointing non-oil domestic export (NODX) performance in the month. The headline NODX plunged 10.6% YoY (-9.1% MoM sa) as sales for both electronics and non-electronics exports declined. Nonetheless, the poor NODX performance may have more to do with the weak industrial production last month (-9.1% MoM sa) rather this month. We have a 3.2% YoY (2.0% MoM sa) penciled into our forecast. If things turned out the way we expect, Singapore will narrowly avert a technical recession. Otherwise, recession is on the cards.

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