Export slowdown to persist after August slump

Risks include tariffs, fading front-loading, and export reliance.

Singapore’s trade sector faces a cautious outlook as economists warn the slowdown in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) is set to persist through the rest of the year.

August’s data showed a sharp 11.3% year-on-year contraction, extending July’s 4.7% decline and falling well short of market expectations for growth.

RHB Bank’s Group Chief Economist and Head of Market Research, Barnabas Gan, stressed that momentum in Singapore’s exports remains fragile.

He pointed to three downside risks that could weigh further in the months ahead, namely ongoing uncertainty surrounding global tariff developments, the waning boost from earlier front-loaded trade, and Singapore’s heavy structural reliance on semiconductor and pharmaceutical shipments.

Analysts at UOB Global Economics and Markets Research also said that the outlook is turning less favorable despite electronics showing relative resilience in recent months.

They noted that demand linked to AI-related activity has provided some support, but warned that key segments such as consumer electronics, telecommunications equipment, and integrated circuits have begun to weaken.

At the same time, shipments to major markets including China, ASEAN, and the United States contracted significantly, highlighting a broader deterioration in external demand conditions.

UOB added that early signs of softening in other trade-related indicators, such as non-oil re-exports and sea cargo volumes, suggest activity is losing steam as earlier front-loading effects fade.

Reflecting these risks, the bank downgraded its full-year 2025 NODX forecast to a range of minus 1% to plus 1%, from a previous estimate of 1% to 3%, cautioning that risks remain firmly tilted to the downside.