How will upcoming BTO supply affect HDB resale market next year?

Upcoming BTO supply and price resistance will keep HDB resale prices in check.

The HDB resale market is expected to remain moderate in 2026 amidst an increase in supply of new flats, and more units meeting the five-year minimum occupation period, coupled with existing cooling measures and price resistance amongst prospective buyers.

“With the ample upcoming BTO [build-to-order] supply and price-sensitive buyers, the overall HDB resale market will likely remain moderate in 2026,” PropNex said in its 2026 market outlook.

Authorities have said that some 55,000 BTO flats will be launched between 2025 and 2027, which means that 35,277 BTO flats will be offered in 2026 and 2027, or about 17,600 each year.

In its “HDB Resale Market Outlook 2026" report, meanwhile, OrangeTee said that the surge in housing supply and possible policy changes are expected to trigger heightened pressure in the HDB resale market next year.

“Slightly fewer flats could be transacted in the resale market as more buyers may be diverted to the Build-To-Order (BTO) market and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF),” OrangeTee said.

PropNex said demand for resale flats is expected to be driven by first-time buyers, upgraders, and downsizers, comprising both Singaporeans and permanent residents.

The average prices in non-mature towns, particularly for larger flats, continue to be more affordable than those of mature estates in 2025. For instance, the average price of four-room resale flats in non-mature towns was $ 607,417 compared with $776,606 in mature estates. Meanwhile, five-room flats fetched an average price of $712,913 in non-mature estates, versus $918,757 in mature towns.

HDB sale data showed that the priciest resale flat sold the past year was a five-room Premium Apartment Loft in Dawson Road in Queenstown for $1.659m. This was followed by a five-room design, build, and sell scheme flat in Bishan Street 24 for $1.632m.

PropNex said “the number of million-dollar resale flats may remain elevated in 2026, owing to the healthy demand for well-located flats and/or units with unique characteristics.”

“Some buyers may be prepared to pay more to secure such desirable resale flats, which are still more affordable compared with private condos in the vicinity,” it added.

OrangeTee, meanwhile, expects HDB resale prices to stabilise in 2026, with overall costs projected to rise modestly by 2% to 4%, similar to the 3% to 4.5% price growth in 2025.

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