HDB resale demand resilient as supply caps prices: analysts

Analysts forecast full-year price movements of between -2% and 2%.

HDB resale market is expected to remain resilient in the second half of 2026. However, an expanding supply of new and recently completed flats is likely to limit price growth, property analysts said.

HDB resale prices fell 0.3% QoQ in Q2, following a 0.1% decline in Q1. Prices were down 0.4% in the first half of the year.

Resale volume increased 1.8% from the previous quarter to 6,396 flats, but was 9.9% lower year-on-year.

PropNex head of research and content Wong Siew Ying said the market is gradually moving from strong price appreciation towards price stability.

She noted that the decline in prices occurred alongside an increase in transactions, indicating that buyers had not withdrawn from the market. Activity was supported by a larger number of flats completing their five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).

PropNex expects resale demand to remain healthy and forecasts 26,000 to 27,000 transactions in 2026. Prices are projected to remain broadly stable or increase by up to 1%.

Realion chief researcher and strategist Christine Sun was more cautious, citing competition from the Build-To-Order (BTO) market, macroeconomic uncertainty and a weaker employment outlook.

Around 24,000 BTO and Sale of Balance Flats are expected to be launched during the year, providing buyers with more alternatives and placing downward pressure on the resale market. Realion forecasts full-year resale price growth of between -1% and 2%.

Huttons senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck expects demand to remain resilient in the second half, supported by budget-conscious buyers and the absence of a Sale of Balance Flats exercise in October.

However, approximately 7,970 BTO flats will be offered in October, whilst the number of flats reaching MOP in 2026 is projected to be about 70% higher than in 2025. These additional units are expected to limit price appreciation.

Huttons forecasts between 22,000 and 26,000 resale transactions for the year, with price growth ranging from -2% to 2%.

SRI head of research and data analytics Mohan Sandrasegeran said the recent moderation represents a healthier rebalancing of supply and demand rather than a weakening of the market.

He expects higher BTO and Sale of Balance Flats supply, shorter waiting times for flats, and more newly MOP units to broaden buyer choice and reduce competitive bidding. SRI forecasts 25,000 to 26,000 transactions and price growth of 0.5% to 2% in 2026.

The number of flats sold for at least $1m reached a quarterly record of 491 in Q2, up 19.5% from Q1.

However, analysts said the increase largely reflected demand for a limited number of newer, larger or well-located flats rather than broad-based price growth. Huttons expects between 1,700 and 1,900 million-dollar transactions in 2026, although it noted that average prices in the segment have started to soften as buyers become more resistant to higher asking prices.