M1's profit at risk of tumbling 7-12%

Here are other threats to watch out for.

According to CIMB, it expects M1's 4Q12 core net profit to come in at S$36m-44m, +8-33% qoq and -4 to +17% yoy. This would bring FY12 profit to about S$144m-153m, down 7-12% yoy, broadly in line with both the firm's and consensus estimates.

However, a big swing factor is the composition of iPhones vs. non-iPhone devices as accounting for the former is based on fair value and has little impact on quarterly earnings whereas the latter does.

Here's more from CIMB:

4Q12 service revenue should have improved qoq due to revenue contribution from subs growth in 3Q and revision of data prices. We expect EBITDA margins to fall about 2% pts qoq due to higher SACs. M1 is expected to release results on 21 Jan.

Items to look out for include:
1. FY13 financial guidance
2. Updates on LTE
3. Updates on fibre trends and its campaign to improve scale and capture

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