Korea's economy struggles in 0.2% economic growth

But GDP growth will pick up.

According to DBS, the economy grew 0.2% QoQ sa in 3Q, a further slowdown from 0.3% in 2Q. It believes that the short-term economic cycle has bottomed in 3Q.

Here's more from DBS:

GDP growth will pick up on the QoQ basis in 4Q. The macro data due this week will likely support our view. September’s industrial production is expected to rebound to 2% MoM (sa), ending the contraction in the preceding three months.

The KAMA statistics revealed that the automobile sector has already recouped about 90% of the output loss incurred in August during the worker strikes.

Meanwhile, on the demand side, the external trade data due this week will likely show that export growth has risen to 0.5% YoY in October, modestly up from -2.0% in the prior month.

Export demand from China increased strongly in September (especially electronics). Besides the substitute effects caused by China-Japan disputes, we think China’s fundamental demand has also started to improve on the back of selective policy easing.

Barring a renewed deterioration in G3 demand, the sequential rise in Korea’s exports should be sustained. A more notable improvement in the YoY trade numbers is expected to emerge in 1H13.

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