, Philippines

Philippine GDP edged up 5.9%

Albeit at a slower rate than analysts' revised and forecasted rise.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, 2Q12 GDP climbed 5.9% YoY, slower than the revised 6.3% (6.4% previously) rise in 1Q12 and 6% forecast, as the contribution of net exports to growth declined sharply. But this was partially offset by domestic demand, particularly faster growth in private consumption and construction investments.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:

On the production side, slower growth was evident in all three major sectors of agriculture, industry and services, although the last continues to lead growth with services value-added expanding 7.6%. As net income from abroad, mostly remittances, increased 4.5%, gross national income (GNI) grew 5.6%, faster than 1Q12 growth of 5.1%.

In 1Q12, net exports contributed a substantial 7.1pps to 6.3% GDP growth which we trace to recovery in exports to Japan and Thailand after the disasters in 2011. In 2Q12, net exports contributed a smaller 2.1pps as exports of goods and services slowed to 8.3% growth from 10.9% in 1Q12 while imports reversed to growth of 4.4% from a 3.2% decline during the same period. The development is not surprising in view of the weak global economy. Indeed, we expect the trend to continue in 2H12.

Private consumption remains a pillar of the economy. Growth accelerated to 5.7% from 5.1% in 1Q12 on the back of significant improvements in expenditures for food, beverages and clothing. Furthermore, its substantial contribution to GDP growth was sustained at 3.9pps from 3.6ppt in 1Q12. 

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