5 structural themes driving Singapore’s earnings visibility

The material impact of these themes is expected to become more pronounced in the second half of 2025.

Singapore’s earnings visibility remains resilient despite external headwinds, underpinned by five key structural themes: domestic resilience, spill-over benefits from China, accelerating capital returns, the rollout of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ), and scaled adoption of AI technologies.

According to a recent report by Maybank Investment Banking Group (MIBG), most of the positive effects from these themes will materialise in H2 2025, particularly after greater clarity emerges on 8 July, when the Trump Administration’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause is set to expire.

Singapore currently faces a baseline 10% reciprocal tariff. Assuming this holds and key sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals continue to be exempt, the effective tariff rate would be 5.1%, MIBG estimates. However, if Singapore is subject to global product-specific tariffs in critical sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and energy, the effective rate could rise to 20.3%.

“Whilst these external shocks pose significant risks, we believe Singapore’s confluence of domestic factors should provide some offsets, unlike in past cycles,” MIBG said.

Chief amongst these is the government’s fiscal firepower. The accumulated fiscal surplus for the current electoral term (FY2021–2025) stands at $14.3 billion, or 1.9% of GDP, with stimulus support expected to be deployed in Q3 2025.

Singapore’s exposure to China’s economic recovery is another tailwind. Nearly two-thirds of the country's top market-cap companies derive material revenues from China, positioning them to benefit from any sustained rebound in the mainland economy.

Meanwhile, since 2020, several government-linked companies (GLCs)—including CapitaLand, Sembcorp Industries, and Keppel—have undergone balance sheet optimisation in response to a shifting operating landscape and a renewed focus on return on invested capital (ROIC). These efforts have translated into stronger shareholder returns.

Momentum is also building around the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, with policy support and announcements outpacing those of previous initiatives. Singaporean corporates are expected to benefit through cost efficiencies and new revenue streams, especially amid shifting supply chains.

Lastly, productivity gains from AI and automation are becoming evident. When measured by pre-provision profits per employee, productivity rose 31% between 2020 and 2025 (estimated). As AI adoption scales, corporates are poised to enjoy improved efficiency, lower costs, and additional growth avenues.

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