December NODX gains signal front-loading ahead of US tariffs: UOB

NODX rose by 1.7% MoM seasonally adjusted in December.

Singapore's December non-oil domestic exports (NODX) and non-oil re-exports (NORX) data continue to indicate front-loading of shipments in anticipation of proposed tariffs on US imports under a second Trump administration, UOB said.

NODX rose by 1.7% MoM seasonally adjusted (sa) in December, following a robust 14.7% MoM sa increase in November, whilst NORX grew by 4.8% MoM sa in December, building on an 8.8% rise in November.

The impact of front-loading is particularly evident in the electronics segment, with electronics NORX surging by 30.3% YoY in December, compared to a 12.7% YoY increase in November.

UOB noted this sharp acceleration suggests that exporters are ramping up shipments to the US to circumvent potential cost increases that could arise from tariff hikes.

Despite the resilience of Singapore's electronics exports, there are signs that the growth cycle may soon peak.

Looking ahead to 2025, UOB projects NODX growth at 1.5%, an improvement from the modest 0.2% growth in 2024. However, the pace of growth is expected to slow in the 2H25  due to the anticipated impact of tariffs.

This forecast aligns with the official projection range of +1.0% to +3.0%, as outlined in the 3Q24 Trade Performance report by Enterprise Singapore