A fearless forecast for MAS' monetary policy in October

A more accommodative monetary policy may be looming for Singapore.

According to CIMB, the government will release preliminary 3Q12 GDP no later than 12 Oct 2012.

Here's more from CIMB:

Allowing for a modest rebound in Sep MPI and assuming the service sector grows at a similar clip as in 2Q11 (1% yoy), advance 3Q12 GDP should come in at 0.8-1% yoy (2Q12 GDP: 3.6%), outside the lower end of the government’s 2012 growth target of 1.5-2.5%.

Singapore is likely to dip into a technical recession with a sequential decline of about 2% qoq annualised vs. -0.7% qoq in 2Q12. Given this acceleration in the pace of decline and the still-uncertain outlook for the coming 6-12 months, the MAS is probably going to switch to a more accommodative monetary policy when it releases its October monetary policy statement. This means a gentler slope of appreciation for the trade-weighted S$NEER.

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