NODX growth seen steady in 2025 despite slow January start

In January 2025, NODX fell by 2.1% YoY.

Economists remain cautiously optimistic about Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) performance in 2025, despite a disappointing start to the year.

In January 2025, NODX fell by 2.1% YoY and contracted by 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted MoM basis, reversing a 9% YoY growth recorded in December 2024.

This decline was mainly attributed to weaker non-electronic exports, particularly pharmaceuticals (-53.0% YoY), specialised machinery (-9.9% YoY), and miscellaneous manufactured articles (-20.0% YoY).

RHB noted that despite the recent dip, the outlook for NODX remains positive, projecting a 2% growth for 2025. The growth forecast is underpinned by the global technology upcycle, with global semiconductor sales expected to rise by 11.2% in 2025.

Nomura also remains positive about the export outlook, expecting a rebound in February as the holiday effects normalise.

It maintains its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.8%, supported by robust semiconductor exports amidst the ongoing global tech upcycle.

Meanwhile, UOB projects NODX growth at 1.5% for 2025, within the official forecast range of 1% to 3%, whilst anticipating a slowdown in export momentum in the second half of the year due to possible tariff impacts.