Singapore’s 2025 growth forecast cut to 2.6% amidst trade headwinds

It also revised down the 3-month Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) forecast to 2.55% by the end of 2025.

Singapore’s GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.6% in 2025, Maybank said.

This forecast sits near the upper end of the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) 1% to 3% range, reflecting heightened uncertainties in the global economy.

The anticipated slowdown is largely attributed to external trade disruptions stemming from Trump’s broadening tariff war, which is expected to dampen external demand, particularly in the second half of the year.

Despite these external headwinds, domestic growth drivers are expected to cushion the impact. Easing monetary conditions, a generous pre-election budget and a surge in public construction activity are set to underpin growth in 2025.

Maybank revised the 3-month Singapore Overnight Rate Average forecast to 2.55% by the end of 2025 (previously 2.75%) and 2.25% by the end of 2026 (previously 2.45%).

Meanwhile, it expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to ease its monetary policy during its April or July 2025 meeting by slightly lowering the slope of the S$NEER to support economic activity amidst weakening global demand.