Singapore’s NODX to grow 2% in 2025: analyst

This forecast aligns with the global trade recovery, with expectations of 1% to 3% growth.

Singapore's Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) are expected to grow by 2% YoY in 2025, supported by the electronics, precision engineering, and transport engineering sectors, RHB said.

In its report, RHB noted this forecast aligns with the global trade recovery, with expectations of 1% to 3% growth, consistent with the World Trade Organization's (WTO) projections for global merchandise trade expansion.

NODX surged 9% YoY in December 2024, surpassing market expectations of 7.4%, following a 3.4% YoY increase in November.

Meanwhile, it projects that GDP will grow by 3% in 2025, driven by improved global demand and easing monetary conditions.

The country’s economic outlook is bolstered by positive growth expectations for major economies, with US GDP forecasted to grow at 2% and China at 4.8%.

The ASEAN region is also expected to benefit from a "Goldilocks" scenario, characterized by stable growth and favorable trade conditions.

Despite the optimistic outlook, RHB said geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to US trade policies under a potential "Trump 2.0" administration, could pose significant challenges to Singapore’s trade-dependent economy.

Rising protectionism and the possibility of a broader trade war could disrupt regional supply chains, with a recessionary scenario estimated to have a 30% probability, potentially impacting growth and investment sentiment.

RHB also noted export performance in December 2024  showed strong growth in the US (30.7% YoY), Taiwan (50.8% YoY), and Malaysia (24.2% YoY), reversing previous declines.

Exports to China and Europe, however, continued to decline due to ongoing economic and policy uncertainties.

Meanwhile, electronics exports grew 18.6% YoY, driven by integrated circuits (+23.4%), disk media products (+44.7%), and computer peripherals (+83.6%).

Non-electronics exports rebounded by 6.6% YoY, with notable increases in non-monetary gold (+67.6%), food preparations (+61.5%), and specialized machinery (+19.9%).