Residential property market walks a tightrope amidst buyer caution, resilient upgrader demand

Analysts are mixed as tariffs stir caution, but HDB upgraders keep demand steady.

New private home sales in Singapore fell 9% in April from March, as analysts noted a cautious mood amongst buyers, driven by economic uncertainty and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs.

Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority revealed that developers moved 663 new private homes, excluding executive condominiums, in April, suggesting the second quarter of 2025 could outperform the same period last year. April’s figure already represents 91% of the 725 units sold in Q2 2024.

Sales were led by One Marina Gardens in Marina South, which accounted for 384 units, or 41% of total monthly transactions. Bloomsbury Residences followed with 107 units sold. Despite launching amid financial market volatility, these projects were described by PropNex as having performed commendably.

“One Marina Gardens’ performance has been very positive, given that the project is not near to schools nor HDB estates, which tend to offer a demand catchment for new launches from HDB upgraders,” said Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research & Content at PropNex Realty.

The uptick in transactions at One Marina Gardens helped widen the median price gap between the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and the Outside Central Region (OCR) to 29.9% in April, up from 19.3% in March. Meanwhile, price disparities narrowed between the Core Central Region (CCR) and RCR but widened between CCR and OCR. The priciest homes sold in April were three units at 21 Anderson in the CCR, each priced between $21m and $23m. Of these, two units were bought by Singapore permanent residents and one by a Singaporean.

Foreign buyers, excluding PRs, accounted for 2.4% of new non-landed private home sales, the highest in four months. There were 16 transactions by foreigners, with 10 units purchased at One Marina Gardens.

“Whilst the US tariffs have introduced uncertainty into the market, the situation is evolving and recent US-China talks have led to a significant dial back of trade tariffs for a 90-day period,” Wong noted. He added that unsold inventory remains relatively manageable at 18,125 units in Q1 2025, compared to over 29,000 in Q1 2020 during the pandemic and about 43,000 in 2008.

Looking ahead, PropNex projects that 2025 new home sales could reach 8,000 to 9,000 units, supported by a robust launch pipeline.

Buyer sentiment remains mixed

OrangeTee analysts observed that whilst the 90-day truce between the U.S. and China has temporarily eased tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties still cloud the outlook.

“Some prospective homebuyers may remain cautious as they evaluate the risks associated with an unstable economic landscape,” said Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist at OrangeTee Group said. “On the other end of the spectrum, private home demand from local buyers, particularly those seeking to upgrade from the HDB market, may remain resilient, provided employment and income growth are not adversely affected.”

She added that local and foreign investors might still favour Singapore’s property market as a stable investment asset, with upcoming launches such as Arina East Residences, The Robertson Opus, and Springleaf Residence potentially bolstering sales in the second half of 2025.

Muted May, cautious developers

According to Huttons, May sales may come in lower than April’s due to the lack of sizeable launches. Arina East Residences and W Residences Marina View are expected to launch, but volumes are likely to remain subdued.

The firm maintained a full-year sales forecast of 7,500 to 8,500 units, with prices expected to rise between 4% and 7% in 2025. “Compared to the S&P 500, the Singapore property market is more stable. Some investors may opt for stability in times of uncertainty,” Huttons added.

Downside risk

CBRE Research reported that year-to-date sales reached 4,038 units by end-April, with Q1 figures remaining largely stable. However, they warned of cautious sentiment amid trade frictions and a weaker growth outlook, noting that Singapore’s GDP forecast for 2025 was revised down to 0–2% from 1–3%.

Most upcoming launches for the rest of the year are expected to be in the CCR and RCR, which may not achieve the same volumes as more affordable OCR projects. CBRE maintains a full-year sales estimate of 7,000 to 8,000 units but warned that “there is downside risk to this projection should economic conditions worsen significantly.”

Whilst private home prices rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, momentum may soften in the months ahead, especially if global economic headwinds persist.