HDB resale price growth decelerates; experts predict slower 2025

Despite the slowdowns, the HDB resale price index rose by 1.5% QoQ in Q1 2025.

Analysts are projecting a slower pace of growth for the HDB resale market in 2025, following a deceleration in price increases in the first quarter.

PropNex expects resale prices to rise by 5% to 7%, a significant slowdown from last year’s 9.7% growth, whilst Huttons reports that transaction volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020.

OrangeTee also noted that whilst prices are still rising, the pace of growth has slowed due to the larger supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF), which have drawn some demand away from the resale market.

Meanwhile, Huttons highlighted a 7.7% YoY drop in transaction volumes to 6,392 units in Q1 2025, marking the lowest quarterly volume since Q2 2020. Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director of Data Analytics at Huttons, explained that the decline is due to “the record low number of about 8,000 flats that fulfilled the minimum occupation period (MOP) in the past 10 years,” noting that “buyers have fewer options, thus resulting in a bigger drop in volume.”

OrangeTee also observed that the price growth in Q1 2025 was slower than the previous quarter.

“The HDB resale market exhibited notable resilience as prices rose for the 20th consecutive quarter. However, the pace of price growth has slowed for a second consecutive quarter, indicating that some level of resistance is starting to set in against further price hikes,” the firm said.

Despite these slowdowns, the HDB resale price index rose by 1.5% QoQ in Q1 2025, continuing its 20-quarter streak of positive growth, although it was the slowest growth since Q1 2024.

Experts remain cautiously optimistic about the HDB resale market's prospects for the rest of 2025. PropNex forecasts that resale transactions will likely range between 28,000 and 29,000 units for the year, supported by demand from various groups of buyers, including first- and second-timer families and permanent residents.

Overall, the analysts predict that the market will remain tight due to low supply, which will likely keep prices stable for the rest of the year.

Huttons forecasts that HDB resale prices will rise by 5% to 8% in 2025, whilst OrangeTee suggests that demand could increase in the second and third quarters of the year as more buyers seek out resale flats.

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