Is property transaction volume finally stabilising?

YTD volume sits at 9,199 units in September.

Home sales have seen improvement in September, rising 8% to 509 units even with the dearth in new launches in the past two months. Could this mean that transaction volume is already stabilising?

According to a report by CIMB, the slightly higher month-on-month volume sales in September brings 9M16 sales volume to 9,199 units, which is relatively stable compared to the 8,048 units in 9M15.

"At this level, we think that the physical market may have reached post-credit and policy
tightening volume equilibrium," the brokerage firm said.

Projects in suburban region continued to garner the most interest, accounting for 58% of monthly sales. It is followed by city fringe projects (28%).

However, prices are expected to slide down due to the high incoming supply of 10,262 units in 2H16 and 14,578 units next year which will, CIMB stressed, drag on the occupancy rate.

"The 3Q16 URA price index flash estimate showed that private home prices retraced by a steeper 1.5% qoq in 3Q16 versus the 0.4% decline in 2Q16. In addition, the rental market remains sluggish, putting pressure on investment demand," CIMB noted.

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